Citing a South China Morning Post report, the Liberty Times said on the 6th that Democrats won back the House majority and Jeffries is a leading candidate for speaker. He announced his bid on the 4th and is expected to be formally elected on the first day of the new Congress in January. Because the vote has not been held, he is for now only a candidate.

According to the Liberty Times, Jeffries met then-President Tsai Ing-wen in New York in March 2023 during her U.S. transit, discussing security, economic and democracy issues, and called the talks very constructive. He also voted for the Protect Taiwan Act passed in February this year, which would restrict China's participation in certain international financial institutions if Beijing poses a potential threat to Taiwan.

Experts: not another Pelosi

The benchmark is then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who visited Taiwan in August 2022, triggering large-scale Chinese military drills around Taiwan and a sharp deterioration in US-China ties. The experts cited by the Liberty Times mostly saw Jeffries as unlikely to follow the same path.

Xin Qiang, deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said Pelosi's trip was a special case that drew criticism in Washington, and that future lawmakers' visits will be more cautious. He added that backing Taiwan is a bipartisan consensus, and a prudent speaker could have a positive effect while an extreme or impulsive one could seriously harm US-China relations. Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, said there is no sign Jeffries plans a visit and expects broad continuity in US defense support for Taiwan.

The US$14 billion arms sale

Drew Thompson, a senior research fellow at Nanyang Technological University's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, expects a Democratic-led Congress to be more active on Taiwan and to scrutinize the Trump administration's concessions to Beijing on human rights and technology export controls. He also expects Congress to press the executive branch to promptly notify lawmakers of the US$14 billion arms sale, which has been shelved despite completing its approval process.

An international relations expert who asked not to be named judged Jeffries relatively rational and moderate based on his legislative record and public remarks. With fewer personal ties to Taiwan and less ideological hostility toward Beijing than Pelosi, an official visit is very unlikely, the expert said. These are the experts' own forecasts; the specific items in the US$14 billion package and the timing of any notification were not confirmed in this report.