The National Development Council said on Oct. 29 that the September business-cycle signal stayed red for a tenth straight month, with a composite score of 41, up 1 point. The council said red could last until year-end.
The Central News Agency reported that the National Development Council said on Oct. 29 the September business-cycle signal stayed red, the tenth consecutive month, which the council described as the longest red streak on record. The composite score was 41, up 1 point from a revised 40 in August.
광고 문의 · 300×250Among the nine components, industrial and services overtime hours moved from green to yellow-red, adding one point, while the other eight were unchanged. CNA relayed the council's view that both leading and coincident indicators kept rising in September, showing the economy is still growing.
Pricing power, not a low base
The previous record was nine straight red months from February to October 2021, helped by a low post-pandemic base. According to CNA, Chen Mei-chu, head of the NDC's economic development department, said the current base is mostly green or yellow-red rather than the yellow-blue or green of 2020, so the economy is climbing further from a higher plateau.
Chen attributed the streak to pricing power built on semiconductor strength rather than a low base, adding that AI demand is spreading to traditional industries and supply chains such as copper foil, substrates, specialty chemicals and machinery. With exports and export orders high and the year-end consumption season ahead, the council expects red to last until year-end.
The council also flagged uncertainties. Recent stock volatility reflects investor doubts about whether major cloud providers can cover huge capital spending with revenue and profit; TrendForce estimates nine major global cloud providers will spend more than US$1.5 trillion in 2027. A high-base effect in the first quarter of 2027 could weigh on growth and the signal. Chen remained optimistic that AI will benefit Taiwan's growth.
