Chosun Ilbo reported on the 29th, six days before the midterms, that the US Senate contest is a dead heat within the margin of error in seven battlegrounds, with concern that vote counting could be slow. The Senate is currently 53 Republican to 47 Democratic-aligned. Thirty-five Senate seats are up on 3 November.

Which seven states

The Cook Political Report rates Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as toss-ups. Only Michigan is currently held by Democrats. We could not read the Chosun text, so we cannot confirm that its seven states match this list.

Recent polls compiled by Newsweek show margins of roughly one to four points in nearly every state. In Texas, two polls have Democrat Talarico two points ahead of Republican Paxton, and in Ohio Sherrod Brown led by four in a Marist poll. In Iowa results diverge: Democrat Turek is up one in one poll and Republican Hinson up two in another.

Factors that could tip the balance

Newsweek, citing Civiqs, reported that Trump’s job approval is net negative in all seven states. A Reuters/Ipsos national poll in mid-October put approval at 31% and disapproval at 66%. Analysts called that approval the biggest factor helping Democrats this cycle.

Prediction markets put the chance of Democrats winning the Senate at 64% to 67%. But the Cook report and other forecast models disagree in places, which observers say shows how fluid the race is. Even if all seven are close, ‘within the margin of error’ means the result could break either way.

The specific cause of the feared counting delay could not be confirmed from the Chosun text, so we do not assert one here. In general, mail-ballot handling and state counting rules affect when results are settled, and closer races tend to take longer to call. Together with Trump’s remark, reported yesterday, that he would respect the result if the election is clean, acceptance of the outcome is likely to draw attention afterward.