The National Development Council's latest 20-year projection shows about 618 Taiwanese leaving the workforce through retirement each day, more than double the number of young people entering it. The population aged 15 to 64 is projected to fall by 4.509 million over two decades.
The Taipei Times reported on its Oct. 27 front page, citing the NDC's latest 20-year projections, that about 618 people leave the labor market each day through retirement, more than twice the number of young people entering. If the legal retirement age and birth rates stay unchanged, Taiwan would lose two workers to retirement for every young person who joins.
광고 문의 · 300×250The paper said the 15-to-64 population would shrink by 4.509 million over 20 years, 3,000 more than last year's projection, which it equated to 60 additional retirees a day. The two figures do not clearly reconcile and the article does not explain the units, so they should be read with caution.
Middle-aged and older share to exceed half
This year 7.292 million people aged 45 to 64 make up 46.3 percent of the working-age population. The NDC projects this group will leave the workforce by 2046, replaced by only 3.095 million young people. The middle-aged and older share of the workforce is expected to exceed 50 percent, up from the earlier estimate of 46.3 percent.
The NDC attributed the change to an accelerated demographic decline. A spokesperson called the widening labor replacement gap an alarming sign for the fiscal health of Taiwan's social welfare programs, saying rising spending and shrinking tax revenue would make it harder for labor pensions, civil servant retirement funds and National Health Insurance to balance their books.
The NDC said Taiwan should raise the retirement age, boost workforce participation and retention among women and older workers, and increase immigration. The reports did not confirm the timing or scale of any such measures. Huaqiao Times will continue to follow how demographic change affects the labor market and welfare policy.
