Israel votes on the 27th for all 120 Knesset seats. The final polls point to a deadlock in which neither bloc reaches the 61-seat majority, and the seats won by Arab-led parties could decide who governs.
According to Al Jazeera, Israel will elect all 120 Knesset seats on the 27th, the first election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. Under proportional representation no party has ever won an outright majority, so a coalition of 61 or more seats must be built. Al Jazeera also noted that losing at the ballot box does not automatically remove Prime Minister Netanyahu.
광고 문의 · 300×250The final polling average compiled by the Jewish outlet Jewish Insider gives Netanyahu’s bloc 54 seats and the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot 50, with Likud at about 23 and Eisenkot’s Yashar party at about 21. Israeli law, however, bars publishing new polls from the Friday before the vote.
Polls disagree
Averaging six TV and newspaper polls from the last two days gives the opposition 52 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc 50. By contrast, polls by the right-leaning Channel 14 and i24 News show the opposite, 61 seats for Netanyahu’s coalition and 45 for the opposition. These are treated as outliers, though Jewish Insider added that Direct Polls was the most accurate pollster in the last election.
The wild card is the Arab-led parties. The Joint List and Ra’am average about 14 seats, and one estimate says Arab turnout could reach 68-69 percent, which could lift that figure. Some small parties hover near the 3.25 percent threshold, and whether they clear it would change both blocs’ arithmetic.
Scenarios after the vote
Al Jazeera laid out eight possible outcomes: Netanyahu forming a new government with existing allies or ultra-Orthodox parties, an opposition majority government under Eisenkot or Naftali Bennett, a minority government backed from outside by the Joint List, a national unity government, a rotating premiership, a different prime minister from the same camp, or no agreement and another election. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022.
Issues include ultra-Orthodox conscription, violent crime in Arab communities, Palestinian statehood, organised crime and the Gaza war. An Israel Democracy Institute poll found that, in a stalemate, 35 percent of Jewish and 46 percent of Arab Israelis prefer a repeat election. Reports that Netanyahu is pushing for an attack on Iran have also appeared, but any causal link to the election has not been confirmed.
