All three main indices in New York fell as crude oil passed $100 a barrel, on concern that higher energy prices will feed back into inflation readings.

Wall Street strategists set out several grounds for a higher risk of a near-term pullback: stretched valuations, rising energy costs, a prolonged geopolitical overhang and the possibility of downgraded earnings forecasts.

Prices and rates

Higher crude passes immediately into costs across transport, chemicals and aviation. That can halt the moderation in inflation readings and push back expectations of rate cuts.

There is a lag, however, in how much of an energy increase reaches core inflation, and some caution that a month or two of data is not enough to fix the direction.

Asian markets

Korea, Taiwan and Japan, all net importers of crude, are especially sensitive. Inventory gains at refiners and chemical makers appear alongside fuel costs for airlines and shipping lines.

The next markers are inflation releases in the major economies and the outcome of producer-country meetings, either of which could alter the short-term price path.