The National Development Council projects Taiwan's total population at 12.15 million in 50 years, a little over half of today's figure. Income and housing costs are cited as reasons couples hold back from having children, and analysts warn the health system feels the demographic shift first.
The council's projection puts Taiwan's population at about 12.15 million half a century from now. Against today's figure of more than 23 million, that is close to a halving.
광고 문의 · 300×250The projection is presented as scenarios combining fertility, mortality and migration; this figure is the medium case. The longer low fertility persists, the faster the decline.
Why fewer children
Local reporting converges on two reasons: incomes are flat while housing costs rise. As urban home prices pull further ahead of annual earnings, decisions to postpone marriage and childbirth accumulate.
Childcare and education costs and long working hours also feature. The government has expanded childbirth allowances and childcare facilities, though critics argue a cash-transfer-centered policy misses the point.
Where health care hits its limit first
Composition changes before totals do. As the share of people over 65 rises quickly, the supply of medical and care workers does not keep pace. Local commentators warn the health system could seize up rapidly.
Emergency rooms, intensive care beds and long-term care staffing are named as the bottlenecks. Hospital finances turn difficult first in areas where population has already fallen.
The overlap with Korea and Chinese-heritage communities
The same problem is under way in Korea. The two societies are close enough in the timing of low fertility and aging to learn from each other's policy experiments. The generational profile of Chinese-heritage communities in Korea is also shifting upward, changing both school-age numbers at Chinese schools and demand for associations' elder programs.
