Corporate tax is the axis of the forecast. Because operating profits at chipmakers and related materials and equipment firms are taxed the following year, this year's export performance carries into next year's receipts. Value-added tax and customs duties move alongside as trade volumes expand.

More revenue widens fiscal options. The rising dependence on one industry is flagged separately: if the chip cycle turns, the downside to revenue forecasts widens by the same measure, leaving the medium-term fiscal plan to absorb the volatility.

With a second round of cabinet appointments pending, final work on the budget may fall to a new line-up. Six or seven ministries including justice, land and defence are named as candidates for the reshuffle.

Which spending lines actually grow is settled in parliamentary review. Support for small merchants, the social safety net and research and development budgets have been the recurring subjects of priority disputes.

For ethnic Chinese small businesses and small trading firms, the parts that land directly are VAT and customs practice and the small-merchant support lines. Sector detail becomes checkable once the bill reaches the National Assembly and line items are published.