According to UDN, the U.S. sought the strait's opening in return for unfreezing overseas Iranian assets, but Iran would not yield on controlling the waterway and charging tolls; Oman's mediation found no common ground.

About a fifth of seaborne crude passes through Hormuz; prolonged uncertainty presses directly on oil prices and freight rates.

Energy-market fallout

Asian economies, heavily reliant on Middle East crude, are especially exposed. Korea, China, Japan and Taiwan are diversifying imports and managing reserves, but a long standoff would feed inflation.

Diplomats expect continued wrangling over the scale and sequencing of fund releases and sanctions relief, and watch for fresh mediation.

A Third Perspective

A strait crisis is a cost-of-living issue as much as a military one. We track the real-economy channel - fuel, freight, prices - over great-power rhetoric.