According to the Kyunghyang Shinmun, 272,337 children were born in 2020, the cohort entering school next year, down about 10% from 302,676 a year earlier. It was the first time births fell below 300,000 since records began in 1970. Births do not map exactly onto enrollment, so actual entrants may differ once education statistics are finalized.

This year’s entering class of 301,442 was the smallest since 1964, and next year will break that record again. In the Kyunghyang Shinmun’s tally, entrants were in the 900,000s in 1964, peaked at a record 1,055,632 in 1968, fell to the 500,000s in 2008 and to the 300,000s in 2024. Next year’s class is about a quarter of the peak.

Daycare and school consolidation

The decline showed up first in childcare. According to the Kyunghyang Shinmun, there were 25,047 daycare centers at the end of September, down 12,324, or 33%, from 37,371 at the end of 2019. Fewer children has meant more closures.

School mergers are expected to accelerate. As schools with no new entrants and classes with sharply fewer pupils increase, regional education offices face harder choices over school placement. The newspaper noted that related businesses, such as after-school childcare academies for elementary pupils, appear unavoidably hit. Regional breakdowns and responses from the Education Ministry or education offices were not covered in that article.

Outlook

The Kyunghyang Shinmun projected entrants will drift down to the low 200,000s by 2030. Because the birth rate has been rebounding over the past two to three years including this one, the class size is expected to stay in the 200,000s. Where the floor lies depends on future births and cannot be stated with confidence.