The head of the International Organization for Migration, speaking during a visit to India, warned that rising seas and drought could trigger mass forced displacement in South Asia. August's Himalayan flood was cited as an example of the risk.
According to the Kyunghyang Shinmun, citing AFP on the 17th, IOM Director General Amy Pope said in an interview the day before, during a visit to India, that climate change could force up to 40.5 million people to move in South Asia by 2050. Korean outlets rounded this to about 40 million; the 40.5 million figure is the worst-case scenario. The report names no specific study, so this article presents the figures as the IOM chief's remarks and analysis.
광고 문의 · 300×250Pope said climate change is threatening livelihoods across South Asia and driving forced displacement. When food production or fodder for livestock becomes impossible, the likelihood of migration rises, and moving is the first response people turn to, she said. She also noted that rising seas and drought threaten homes and farmland.
The IOM assessed that South Asian countries, India among them, are especially vulnerable to climate change because of large populations and limited resources. The region combines low-lying coasts, arid zones and Himalayan highlands, so the nature of the risk varies.
A major flood in the Himalayan highlands on August 26 was cited as the risk made real. According to AFP, the flood killed more than 1,400 people in Nepal and China's Tibet Autonomous Region and left about 6,000 missing. It has been suggested that warming-driven changes in the Himalayas caused large masses of glacier and rock to collapse and trigger the flood, but the report did not confirm the exact cause.
Pope criticized a lack of urgency in the international community about the risks facing vulnerable societies and warned that funding to help with climate response remains insufficient. Her point was that support should come first to help people avoid having to leave their homes, rather than only dealing with the question of receiving migrants.
The IOM stressed that better data and artificial intelligence can help identify risks before disasters strike. Pope said advances in AI forecasting now make it possible to pinpoint areas at high risk of forced displacement in advance, and that combining weather forecasts with information on residents' livelihoods could target aid more precisely.
The warning is a projection, and actual displacement will depend on the pace of emissions cuts, investment in adaptation and national policies. As of the reports on the 17th, no official reactions from governments had been confirmed.
