A United Nations body has warned that the current El Nino may develop into the strongest in four decades, pointing to a period in which heavy rain and drought diverge sharply by region.
A UN agency warned that the current El Nino could strengthen to its most intense level in 40 years, adding that the world is entering a danger zone for extreme weather.
광고 문의 · 300×250El Nino is a warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. When the distribution of heat at the ocean surface shifts, atmospheric circulation shifts with it, moving where rain falls and where it does not.
A strong El Nino typically produces regional divergence: heavy rain along South America's west coast and the southern United States, drought across Southeast Asia and Australia. East Asia sees effects on summer rainfall and winter temperatures that vary by year.
Effects on agriculture and prices draw particular attention, since the growing regions for wheat, maize, palm oil and coffee fall widely within El Nino's reach and yield swings translate quickly into international prices.
For disaster planning the difference is lead time. Unlike typhoons or earthquakes, El Nino gives months of warning signals, leaving room to adjust reservoir operations and planting schedules.
Forecast uncertainty remains, however. There have been several occasions when the scale of surface warming and the strength of the atmospheric response did not match projections.
For Sinophone families in Korea the effects arrive in two ways: food prices, and disaster risk in regions where relatives live. Anyone planning travel should check whether wet and dry seasons may shift.
This paper does not attribute individual disasters to a single climatic phenomenon. What can be confirmed is the outlook for development and the preparation it warrants.
