Asked by reporters whether negotiations were proceeding, Trump said they were not and that nothing was on the calendar. The two sides had used the memorandum to set a 60-day window, which closed without agreement on ending the conflict or reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The temporary ceasefire expired on Aug. 17. Wire services reported that a senior Iranian official cited the diplomatic impasse in describing a shift to a fully offensive stance. Washington has not disclosed a specific response.

Markets moved first as prospects for a deal receded. Brent crude rose toward $91 a barrel, major equity indexes weakened, and long-dated government bond yields climbed to multi-decade highs. With the conflict approaching six months, energy prices, interest rates and freight costs are moving together.

What is confirmed at this stage is the absence of talks. Neither side has said whether mediation channels are fully closed or whether quiet contacts continue. In comparable past episodes, public denials and private contacts have run in parallel.

Three indicators come next: actual transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, changes in U.S. force posture in the Gulf, and whether third-country mediation resumes.