According to the United Daily News (UDN), satellite imagery on July 3 showed Bavi entering the 'eye-opening' stage, a sign of a stabilizing core and rapid intensification. Forecasters expect it to cross the severe-typhoon threshold as early as tonight.

Experts note Bavi is growing in size as well as strength. A large typhoon's outer rainbands can lash wide areas with heavy rain and wind even if the center passes offshore, so small shifts in track can greatly change the damage zone.

Taiwan or Okinawa: the Pacific High decides

Most models show Bavi moving north from waters east of the Philippines toward the area between Taiwan and Okinawa. The key is the Pacific subtropical high: if it extends westward, the storm edges toward Taiwan; if it retreats, Bavi recurves toward Okinawa, Taiwanese forecasters say.

UDN reported that whether Bavi threatens Taiwan should become clearer around July 4-5. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration is preparing for possible sea and land warnings, while local governments inspect drainage and landslide-prone areas.

Airlines and shippers in the peak summer season are also on alert: a track through the Taiwan Strait or the Ryukyus would cascade delays across Korea-Taiwan-Southeast Asia routes.

What travelers from Korea should watch

Ethnic Chinese families in Korea planning trips toward Taiwan or Okinawa should wait for the July 4-5 track updates before adjusting plans, and check typhoon cancellation policies for flights and hotels in advance.

Forecasts from Taiwan, Japan and Korea may differ; the Sinophone Bridge Times will update the track and impact zone as new advisories arrive.

A Third Perspective

Taiwan watches for landfall, Japan for Okinawa, Korea for indirect effects and flight disruption. We place the three forecasts side by side so cross-border readers can judge for their own itineraries.